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Red22
90066.8
41869.6
91436.7
Blue37
87934.1
469818.6
570011.8
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2837102040502237

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4186
#40
9.60.5
8.68.1
Auto5.7
Teleop2.7
End1.3
blue by 8.9
4698
#11
18.60.5
13.514.1
Auto7.7
Teleop7.3
End3.6
Second
9006
#27
6.80.5
7.36.8
Auto3.6
Teleop3.1
End0.2
blue by 5.0
5700
#24
11.80.5
8.89.3
Auto6.3
Teleop5.1
End0.3
Third
9143
#31
6.70.5
10.810.2
Auto1.7
Teleop4.4
End0.6
red by 2.6
8793
#37
4.10.5
9.910.4
Auto1.8
Teleop2.2
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
16%Melody oddsMissed18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed