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Red89
427021.8
680041.2
949636.2
Blue95
944229.9
581722.4
331031.0
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1191070501502002508995

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6800
#34
41.21.4
41.840.3
Auto7.3
Teleop30.9
End3.0
red by 10.2
3310
#24
31.00.9
37.036.2
Auto8.8
Teleop17.7
End4.5
Second
9496
#23
36.21.4
36.635.2
Auto10.1
Teleop24.9
End1.2
red by 6.3
29.90.9
35.334.5
Auto12.0
Teleop16.4
End1.5
Third
4270
#31
21.81.4
28.026.6
Auto5.9
Teleop11.4
End4.5
blue by 0.6
5817
#36
22.40.9
25.624.8
Auto5.1
Teleop15.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
87%Melody oddsMissed77%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsMissed41%Ensemble oddsMissed