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Red69
161016.7
12228.5
189518.6
Blue79
34629.7
42228.8
289016.6
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions658702040801001201406979

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
122
#23
28.50.5
27.027.5
Auto11.7
Teleop14.8
End2.0
blue by 1.2
346
#11
29.70.5
29.529.0
Auto11.1
Teleop13.5
End5.1
Second
1895
#48
18.60.5
18.118.6
Auto6.5
Teleop11.5
End0.7
blue by 10.2
422
#30
28.80.5
29.729.2
Auto10.4
Teleop16.9
End1.5
Third
1610
#51
16.70.5
16.216.7
Auto4.7
Teleop8.6
End3.4
red by 0.1
2890
#41
16.60.5
17.116.6
Auto6.9
Teleop7.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned61%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsMissed55%Ensemble oddsMissed