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Red44
314614.9
17520.7
974.9
Blue39
174019.8
22815.5
457213.1
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3450102040607080904439

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
175
#5
20.71.3
15.416.7
Auto10.0
Teleop10.4
End0.4
red by 0.9
19.80.4
17.617.2
Auto8.1
Teleop9.7
End2.0
Second
3146
#16
14.91.3
14.615.9
Auto7.8
Teleop5.5
End1.6
blue by 0.6
228
#24
15.50.4
15.615.2
Auto5.0
Teleop9.4
End1.1
Third
97
#28
4.91.3
2.33.6
Auto1.5
Teleop2.3
End1.0
blue by 8.2
4572
#20
13.10.4
9.79.2
Auto3.9
Teleop8.2
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsMissed37%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed