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Red95
722631.9
753117.8
213727.8
Blue90
860839.4
742631.2
978716.2
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81920501502009590

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7226
#16
31.91.2
30.131.3
Auto8.8
Teleop20.8
End2.4
blue by 7.5
39.40.3
37.337.0
Auto14.8
Teleop19.2
End5.4
Second
2137
#31
27.81.2
27.628.8
Auto5.4
Teleop17.4
End5.0
blue by 3.4
7426
#36
31.20.3
29.729.4
Auto8.8
Teleop20.0
End2.5
Third
7531
#49
17.81.2
17.218.4
Auto9.0
Teleop6.9
End1.8
red by 1.6
9787
#45
16.20.3
15.214.9
Auto7.2
Teleop7.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
84%Melody oddsMissed76%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
30%Ensemble oddsEarned57%Ensemble oddsEarned