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Red60
401313.6
87888.4
38624.2
Blue39
80579.6
743122.8
80669.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions474630405060706039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
386
#14
24.21.2
23.024.1
Auto8.1
Teleop13.4
End2.7
red by 1.5
7431
#22
22.80.2
22.121.9
Auto7.5
Teleop12.7
End2.5
Second
4013
#45
13.61.2
12.513.6
Auto3.9
Teleop8.8
End0.9
red by 4.0
8057
#52
9.60.3
9.89.6
Auto4.8
Teleop3.2
End1.6
Third
8788
#42
8.41.2
7.28.4
Auto4.0
Teleop3.5
End0.9
blue by 1.1
8066
#39
9.50.2
9.79.5
Auto4.6
Teleop3.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
36%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
22%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed