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Red89
940410.8
124126.9
541430.8
Blue114
192337.0
511429.6
180742.2
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions59139010015020089114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5414
#44
30.81.7
30.031.7
Auto8.9
Teleop21.3
End0.6
blue by 11.4
42.21.2
42.641.4
Auto11.1
Teleop28.2
End2.9
Second
1241
#41
26.91.7
23.425.1
Auto7.8
Teleop17.3
End1.8
blue by 10.1
1923
#13
37.01.2
38.637.4
Auto8.6
Teleop23.8
End4.7
Third
9404
#60
10.81.7
9.611.4
Auto4.7
Teleop4.0
End2.0
blue by 18.9
5114
#49
29.61.2
35.534.3
Auto13.3
Teleop13.5
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
36%Melody oddsEarned97%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsMissed60%Ensemble oddsEarned