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Red111
17734.8
192337.0
614735.7
Blue118
969222.8
300554.9
490732.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11411490100110120130140111118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1923
#13
37.00.1
36.536.6
Auto8.6
Teleop23.8
End4.7
blue by 17.9
54.90.6
51.051.6
Auto16.0
Teleop34.8
End4.2
Second
6147
#22
35.70.1
30.730.8
Auto11.2
Teleop16.1
End8.5
red by 3.4
4907
#27
32.40.6
33.734.3
Auto14.5
Teleop13.0
End4.9
Third
177
#11
34.80.1
35.035.1
Auto10.8
Teleop20.4
End3.6
red by 12.0
9692
#47
22.80.6
19.420.0
Auto8.4
Teleop11.6
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
94%Melody oddsEarned91%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
71%Ensemble oddsEarned62%Ensemble oddsEarned