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Red85
861332.2
664727.1
907233.7
Blue115
30228.4
423039.3
857630.4
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions999605015020085115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9072
#40
33.70.3
34.133.8
Auto11.7
Teleop21.9
End0.1
blue by 5.6
39.31.5
36.037.5
Auto11.1
Teleop24.7
End3.4
Second
8613
#39
32.20.3
28.328.1
Auto11.7
Teleop18.5
End2.1
red by 1.8
8576
#31
30.41.5
24.225.7
Auto8.6
Teleop18.9
End3.0
Third
6647
#29
27.10.3
26.826.5
Auto5.2
Teleop20.6
End1.3
blue by 1.3
302
#56
28.41.5
26.828.4
Auto6.6
Teleop17.3
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
95%Melody oddsEarned78%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed47%Ensemble oddsEarned