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Red109
858125.6
306136.9
682317.5
Blue66
178131.6
756010.0
958517.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8557204010012014010966

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3061
#23
36.91.5
34.135.6
Auto12.2
Teleop23.0
End1.6
red by 5.3
1781
#27
31.60.2
27.928.1
Auto10.0
Teleop19.3
End2.3
Second
8581
#12
25.61.5
24.425.9
Auto11.0
Teleop12.1
End2.5
red by 7.9
9585
#35
17.70.4
18.118.4
Auto7.1
Teleop8.3
End2.3
Third
6823
#25
17.51.5
15.016.5
Auto6.6
Teleop9.4
End1.5
red by 7.5
7560
#45
10.00.4
8.79.1
Auto5.1
Teleop4.3
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
93%Melody oddsEarned55%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed