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Red54
62379.7
504120.9
593426.4
Blue64
657418.4
203919.5
465522.3
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63654050607080905464

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5934
#25
26.40.3
26.726.4
Auto9.8
Teleop14.3
End2.3
red by 4.1
22.30.2
21.321.5
Auto6.6
Teleop10.0
End5.7
Second
5041
#11
20.90.3
21.220.9
Auto8.4
Teleop10.4
End2.0
red by 1.4
2039
#17
19.50.2
18.518.6
Auto4.3
Teleop12.3
End2.9
Third
6237
#21
9.70.3
10.19.7
Auto4.7
Teleop3.8
End1.2
blue by 8.6
18.40.2
17.317.5
Auto4.1
Teleop12.0
End2.3