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Red50
544211.8
42136.9
306131.6
Blue45
442313.2
51251.2
999616.2
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions62240501001502005045

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3061
#11
31.60.1
31.431.3
Auto11.2
Teleop17.7
End2.8
red by 15.4
9996
#19
16.22.3
14.316.6
Auto4.4
Teleop11.3
End0.5
Second
5442
#33Sur
11.80.1
13.713.6
Auto2.8
Teleop7.7
End1.3
blue by 1.4
4423
#34
13.22.3
9.611.9
Auto4.6
Teleop7.5
End1.1
Third
4213
#18
6.90.1
6.26.1
Auto5.7
Teleop0.9
End0.4
red by 5.8
5125
#35
1.21.4
0.11.5
Auto0.4
Teleop0.6
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
36%Melody oddsMissed3%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
22%Ensemble oddsMissed4%Ensemble oddsMissed