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Red45
498226.9
949115.1
745427.6
Blue67
314721.2
540221.6
518821.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63664050607080904567

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7454
#20
27.60.8
21.020.2
Auto8.4
Teleop15.7
End3.4
red by 6.0
5402
#34
21.60.5
22.222.7
Auto5.3
Teleop14.2
End2.1
Second
4982
#21
26.90.8
23.622.8
Auto10.3
Teleop13.8
End2.8
red by 5.7
3147
#22
21.20.5
15.415.9
Auto9.3
Teleop9.5
End2.4
Third
9491
#32
15.10.8
12.912.1
Auto5.2
Teleop7.1
End2.8
blue by 6.1
5188
#31
21.20.5
22.022.4
Auto10.3
Teleop9.4
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
48%Melody oddsMissed39%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed