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Red78
314721.2
765717.9
649823.6
Blue74
949115.1
810329.6
394031.2
15%Model gave it85%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions578020401001207874

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.61.5
18.920.4
Auto7.8
Teleop13.7
End2.1
blue by 7.6
3940
#24
31.20.3
27.728.0
Auto10.9
Teleop16.5
End3.9
Second
3147
#22
21.21.5
18.520.0
Auto9.3
Teleop9.5
End2.4
blue by 8.4
29.60.3
27.828.1
Auto10.6
Teleop16.6
End2.4
Third
7657
#35
17.91.5
16.518.0
Auto8.7
Teleop8.4
End0.8
red by 2.8
9491
#32
15.10.3
14.314.6
Auto5.2
Teleop7.1
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
42%Melody oddsEarned63%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed34%Ensemble oddsEarned