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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54372060804333

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.20.6
25.424.8
Auto9.0
Teleop12.8
End3.4
red by 4.2
21.00.2
19.519.3
Auto8.2
Teleop9.9
End2.9
Second
6498
#17
17.10.6
14.013.4
Auto8.0
Teleop7.0
End2.1
red by 5.7
4485
#22
11.40.2
9.49.2
Auto3.1
Teleop6.9
End1.5
Third
9554
#21
7.70.6
7.77.1
Auto2.3
Teleop5.2
End0.2
blue by 1.0
3947
#26
8.60.2
6.96.7
Auto2.5
Teleop4.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed