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Red117
12543.9
126140.2
173232.3
Blue92
192318.6
174728.4
608134.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144975020011792

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
125
#2
43.90.5
43.743.1
Auto14.8
Teleop23.6
End5.6
red by 9.7
34.20.5
30.529.9
Auto14.8
Teleop15.6
End3.9
Second
1261
#18
40.20.5
43.142.6
Auto13.3
Teleop24.4
End2.5
red by 11.7
1747
#32
28.40.5
32.732.1
Auto7.4
Teleop17.8
End3.2
Third
1732
#34
32.30.5
37.837.3
Auto11.0
Teleop15.4
End5.9
red by 13.7
1923
#49
18.60.5
30.029.5
Auto8.6
Teleop7.6
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
99%Melody oddsEarned95%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
78%Ensemble oddsEarned58%Ensemble oddsMissed