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Red43
308315.1
26798.7
784522.0
Blue72
383521.5
15807.7
157428.2
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35540204060801004372

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7845
#16
22.00.6
16.817.5
Auto11.6
Teleop9.2
End1.3
blue by 6.2
28.21.7
23.325.0
Auto10.5
Teleop14.3
End3.5
Second
3083
#12
15.10.6
8.59.1
Auto4.5
Teleop8.2
End2.4
blue by 6.4
21.51.7
13.114.8
Auto7.6
Teleop11.5
End2.4
Third
2679
#17
8.70.6
8.59.1
Auto2.9
Teleop4.7
End1.1
red by 1.0
1580
#29
7.71.7
10.412.0
Auto2.1
Teleop4.5
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
27%Melody oddsEarned35%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed44%Ensemble oddsEarned