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Red96
179653.0
20120.7
287512.7
Blue113
440529.7
295935.9
313629.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9010105015020096113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.00.5
50.150.6
Auto18.6
Teleop28.2
End6.2
red by 17.1
2959
#16
35.91.5
33.635.1
Auto10.8
Teleop22.6
End2.4
Second
201
#30
20.70.5
19.520.0
Auto7.3
Teleop10.6
End2.7
blue by 9.2
3136
#37
29.91.5
28.530.0
Auto7.5
Teleop19.5
End2.9
Third
2875
#69
12.70.5
13.313.9
Auto5.1
Teleop6.7
End1.0
blue by 17.0
4405
#23
29.71.5
28.329.8
Auto11.3
Teleop16.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
71%Melody oddsEarned88%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
48%Ensemble oddsEarned30%Ensemble oddsEarned