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Red80
999412.8
608134.2
721120.7
Blue79
6826.2
30223.4
612014.1
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67664050607080908079

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.21.3
31.532.8
Auto14.5
Teleop16.6
End3.1
red by 8.0
68
#14
26.21.1
28.029.1
Auto11.5
Teleop12.3
End2.3
Second
7211
#16
20.71.3
18.720.0
Auto6.0
Teleop13.0
End1.7
blue by 2.7
302
#6
23.41.1
20.121.2
Auto7.0
Teleop12.0
End4.4
Third
9994
#15
12.82.2
8.410.5
Auto4.5
Teleop6.6
End1.8
blue by 1.3
6120
#20
14.11.1
13.014.1
Auto8.4
Teleop3.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
53%Melody oddsEarned32%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
26%Ensemble oddsMissed55%Ensemble oddsEarned