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Red44
88820.6
44644.5
409922.5
Blue54
859222.8
450511.7
511515.5
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4853203040607080904454

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4099
#12
22.50.0
19.619.5
Auto8.9
Teleop13.0
End0.7
blue by 0.3
22.80.3
20.620.9
Auto7.0
Teleop13.4
End2.4
Second
888
#10
20.60.0
21.921.9
Auto9.2
Teleop10.1
End1.2
red by 5.1
15.50.3
16.616.9
Auto6.4
Teleop7.3
End1.9
Third
4464
#33
4.50.0
3.02.9
Auto1.4
Teleop2.3
End0.8
blue by 7.2
4505
#17
11.70.3
10.310.6
Auto5.8
Teleop5.3
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsMissed26%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed