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Red39
346735.4
17218.7
99988.8
Blue58
568737.4
431118.2
490921.7
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74910501502003958

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3467
#26Sur
35.42.6
39.236.7
Auto9.0
Teleop24.3
End2.1
blue by 2.1
5687
#1Sur
37.41.5
39.938.4
Auto8.7
Teleop25.8
End2.9
Second
172
#28
18.72.6
22.620.0
Auto7.8
Teleop8.2
End2.8
blue by 3.0
4909
#20
21.71.5
24.222.7
Auto9.7
Teleop9.0
End3.0
Third
9998
#15
8.84.3
10.56.2
Auto5.5
Teleop3.1
End0.1
blue by 9.5
18.21.5
16.414.9
Auto8.4
Teleop8.9
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
75%Melody oddsMissed69%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed25%Ensemble oddsMissed