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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6423040801009014

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.50.7
27.828.5
Auto8.2
Teleop18.2
End1.0
red by 11.1
4325
#11
16.41.1
17.316.3
Auto8.1
Teleop7.0
End1.3
Second
19.30.7
15.616.3
Auto5.7
Teleop12.0
End1.5
red by 13.6
5182
#33
5.71.1
8.47.3
Auto2.6
Teleop2.1
End1.0
Third
6538
#15
9.60.6
9.310.0
Auto5.7
Teleop3.5
End0.4
red by 9.1
7810
#34
0.51.1
0.2-0.8
Auto-1.1
Teleop0.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
59%Melody oddsEarned21%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed