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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4425010203040506070804225

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.90.4
19.519.9
Auto6.7
Teleop13.0
End3.2
red by 8.1
4956
#23
14.80.9
13.812.9
Auto6.0
Teleop7.0
End1.8
Second
3875
#25
11.60.4
9.610.0
Auto3.8
Teleop6.3
End1.5
red by 4.6
7109
#18
7.00.9
7.46.5
Auto2.2
Teleop3.8
End1.1
Third
5314
#13
10.40.4
8.38.7
Auto3.2
Teleop6.8
End0.4
red by 7.3
8297
#32
3.00.9
3.82.9
Auto2.0
Teleop1.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
13%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsEarned