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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions52260204060801006637

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.32.4
18.621.0
Auto9.4
Teleop15.8
End3.1
red by 12.8
5066
#15
15.50.4
11.211.6
Auto4.9
Teleop9.6
End1.0
Second
24.02.4
18.621.0
Auto9.2
Teleop13.7
End1.1
red by 8.7
15.30.4
11.912.3
Auto5.1
Teleop9.3
End0.9
Third
5205
#29
6.72.4
7.19.5
Auto0.6
Teleop5.4
End0.7
Level
8300
#28
6.70.4
3.94.4
Auto1.2
Teleop5.4
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
28%Melody oddsEarned8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed