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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions362401020304050604719

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7197
#11
20.31.4
16.417.8
Auto4.8
Teleop14.7
End0.8
red by 11.6
5559
#20
8.70.8
9.48.7
Auto4.3
Teleop3.5
End0.9
Second
8522
#13
13.61.4
10.011.4
Auto5.0
Teleop8.0
End0.6
red by 6.9
5205
#29
6.70.8
7.06.2
Auto0.6
Teleop5.4
End0.7
Third
9210
#22
6.61.4
4.86.2
Auto1.4
Teleop4.9
End0.3
red by 0.8
3773
#31
5.70.8
6.45.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop5.1
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
9%Melody oddsEarned14%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed