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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5839020806843

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3414
#14
20.51.6
20.422.0
Auto7.9
Teleop11.0
End1.6
red by 0.8
8728
#17
19.70.5
16.817.3
Auto5.9
Teleop12.9
End0.9
Second
18.41.4
17.218.6
Auto4.8
Teleop11.1
End2.5
red by 3.2
8373
#10
15.20.5
14.615.1
Auto6.2
Teleop7.1
End1.9
Third
8424
#23
14.61.6
12.714.3
Auto4.6
Teleop8.8
End1.2
red by 8.0
9210
#22
6.60.4
6.26.6
Auto1.4
Teleop4.9
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
22%Melody oddsEarned40%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
30%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed