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Red65
52604.3
14115.3
376722.8
Blue37
191816.7
400417.4
56416.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5548102030406070806537

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.80.1
23.623.7
Auto12.6
Teleop10.1
End0.1
red by 5.4
4004
#21
17.40.5
22.021.5
Auto4.8
Teleop10.9
End1.6
Second
141
#16
15.30.1
18.318.4
Auto5.5
Teleop7.4
End2.4
blue by 1.4
1918
#12
16.70.5
19.819.3
Auto2.3
Teleop11.8
End2.5
Third
5260
#20
4.30.1
6.76.8
Auto3.8
Teleop-0.1
End0.5
blue by 2.4
5641
#10
6.60.5
2.42.0
Auto3.4
Teleop3.2
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsMissed38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsEarned15%Ensemble oddsMissed