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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions83812040601001208396

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.10.6
42.643.2
Auto15.6
Teleop22.9
End4.6
red by 10.2
32.91.5
28.830.3
Auto12.8
Teleop15.2
End4.8
Second
3618
#33
21.40.6
20.120.6
Auto9.0
Teleop9.5
End2.9
blue by 3.9
1023
#14
25.31.5
26.928.4
Auto9.1
Teleop12.1
End4.1
Third
2224
#38
14.40.6
12.012.6
Auto4.6
Teleop8.2
End1.5
blue by 3.5
6152
#36
17.91.5
18.019.5
Auto6.0
Teleop10.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
80%Melody oddsEarned73%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
24%Ensemble oddsEarned36%Ensemble oddsEarned