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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions818860701001101201308887

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.60.4
26.326.7
Auto7.9
Teleop20.5
End2.3
blue by 6.4
37.00.2
37.037.2
Auto12.2
Teleop20.3
End4.5
Second
7056
#16
27.70.4
28.929.3
Auto11.3
Teleop14.6
End1.8
blue by 5.3
2959
#12
33.00.2
29.729.9
Auto10.4
Teleop20.0
End2.5
Third
5577
#29
20.40.4
19.319.7
Auto7.4
Teleop11.0
End2.0
red by 9.8
4453
#31
10.60.2
12.212.4
Auto4.6
Teleop4.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
78%Melody oddsEarned89%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
28%Ensemble oddsMissed25%Ensemble oddsEarned