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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8193406010012055102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7056
#16
27.71.3
30.028.7
Auto11.3
Teleop14.6
End1.8
blue by 3.2
3641
#11
30.90.8
32.533.4
Auto7.0
Teleop20.7
End3.1
Second
5907
#17
26.91.3
30.629.3
Auto10.7
Teleop13.7
End2.6
blue by 0.1
3414
#13
27.00.8
22.923.7
Auto7.7
Teleop17.3
End2.0
Third
9618
#39
13.51.3
14.012.7
Auto4.8
Teleop7.3
End1.5
blue by 11.7
1023
#14
25.30.8
27.328.1
Auto9.1
Teleop12.1
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
88%Melody oddsEarned94%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
39%Ensemble oddsMissed46%Ensemble oddsEarned