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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1086020408010012014016010550

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1250
#10
32.60.5
33.433.9
Auto10.1
Teleop19.0
End3.5
red by 4.8
3534
#22
27.70.7
27.727.0
Auto7.7
Teleop17.8
End2.3
Second
3641
#11
30.90.5
33.433.9
Auto7.0
Teleop20.7
End3.1
red by 14.0
6538
#28
17.00.7
17.416.7
Auto9.5
Teleop6.4
End1.1
Third
244
#26
25.70.5
25.225.7
Auto6.5
Teleop16.5
End2.6
red by 11.3
8280
#40
14.40.7
15.314.6
Auto7.1
Teleop5.3
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
97%Melody oddsEarned39%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
42%Ensemble oddsEarned12%Ensemble oddsMissed