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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions100692040608012014016010272

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.21.0
40.941.9
Auto16.4
Teleop23.0
End4.8
red by 18.4
6528
#16
25.70.1
25.425.5
Auto6.0
Teleop15.5
End4.2
Second
3655
#18
29.41.0
23.924.9
Auto7.6
Teleop20.0
End1.8
red by 7.8
51
#33
21.60.1
21.321.4
Auto7.8
Teleop12.0
End1.8
Third
8286
#23
23.91.0
22.323.3
Auto11.8
Teleop10.1
End2.0
red by 6.4
5533
#40
17.60.1
19.219.2
Auto7.7
Teleop8.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
97%Melody oddsEarned63%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
28%Ensemble oddsEarned34%Ensemble oddsMissed