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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions998620406012014016018010181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27
#3
43.50.8
40.841.6
Auto12.6
Teleop26.8
End4.1
red by 10.4
7197
#15
33.10.1
30.730.8
Auto12.1
Teleop19.0
End2.0
Second
29.90.8
28.229.1
Auto7.6
Teleop19.4
End2.8
red by 5.9
5424
#31
23.90.1
23.023.1
Auto8.9
Teleop12.8
End2.2
Third
5533
#40
17.60.8
19.220.1
Auto7.7
Teleop8.2
End1.7
blue by 6.3
7211
#34
23.90.1
25.825.9
Auto6.0
Teleop15.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
95%Melody oddsEarned85%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsMissed31%Ensemble oddsMissed