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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10373204060801201408986

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3175
#21
34.20.1
35.735.7
Auto13.7
Teleop18.6
End2.0
red by 8.3
3707
#11
25.91.1
24.425.5
Auto8.8
Teleop13.5
End3.6
Second
3322
#14
32.70.1
30.230.2
Auto12.5
Teleop17.0
End3.2
red by 7.8
4004
#32
24.91.1
25.927.0
Auto6.0
Teleop16.4
End2.4
Third
8286
#23
23.90.1
24.023.9
Auto11.8
Teleop10.1
End2.0
red by 2.2
503
#30
21.71.1
19.220.3
Auto8.1
Teleop10.5
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
93%Melody oddsEarned61%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
41%Ensemble oddsMissed50%Ensemble oddsMissed