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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions701054060801201408791

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85
#19
31.70.0
32.132.0
Auto11.3
Teleop18.4
End2.0
blue by 3.2
245
#5
34.90.0
36.636.6
Auto11.4
Teleop20.9
End2.6
Second
5084
#35
25.00.0
24.824.7
Auto8.8
Teleop13.5
End2.8
blue by 5.9
5152
#25
30.90.0
30.530.5
Auto9.5
Teleop19.2
End2.1
Third
9743
#36
10.70.0
10.710.7
Auto5.8
Teleop4.0
End0.9
blue by 13.3
8286
#23
23.90.0
23.923.9
Auto11.8
Teleop10.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
58%Melody oddsEarned92%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
23%Ensemble oddsEarned10%Ensemble oddsMissed