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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101695015012763

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.21.9
36.338.2
Auto16.4
Teleop23.0
End4.8
red by 18.0
3620
#22
26.20.2
24.324.1
Auto11.8
Teleop12.4
End2.0
Second
3322
#14
32.71.9
28.330.3
Auto12.5
Teleop17.0
End3.2
red by 8.5
5612
#12
24.20.2
20.220.0
Auto8.0
Teleop12.8
End3.4
Third
6528
#16
25.71.9
23.325.2
Auto6.0
Teleop15.5
End4.2
red by 1.8
5424
#31
23.90.2
21.521.3
Auto8.9
Teleop12.8
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
96%Melody oddsEarned74%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
56%Ensemble oddsMissed34%Ensemble oddsMissed