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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3720060803510

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5901
#11
17.90.1
15.115.0
Auto7.8
Teleop9.2
End1.0
red by 8.9
2591
#23
9.10.7
8.37.6
Auto3.0
Teleop5.0
End1.1
Second
8352
#26
13.70.1
12.212.1
Auto4.4
Teleop7.4
End1.9
red by 8.1
4854
#20
5.50.7
7.06.3
Auto1.6
Teleop2.8
End1.1
Third
8362
#29
5.00.1
4.44.2
Auto2.9
Teleop1.1
End1.0
red by 1.1
9727
#36
3.90.7
4.84.1
Auto2.2
Teleop1.5
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
5%Melody oddsMissed5%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed38%Ensemble oddsMissed