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Red50
553023.4
11888.1
353428.1
Blue51
436227.4
353821.5
150214.1
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71703040506080901005051

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3534
#11
28.10.7
28.227.5
Auto8.4
Teleop17.1
End2.6
red by 0.7
4362
#26
27.41.0
26.725.7
Auto7.8
Teleop16.1
End3.5
Second
5530
#13
23.40.7
23.923.2
Auto6.3
Teleop14.8
End2.2
red by 1.9
21.51.0
23.722.8
Auto10.5
Teleop7.3
End3.7
Third
1188
#32
8.10.7
8.88.1
Auto3.4
Teleop3.6
End1.2
blue by 6.0
1502
#37
14.11.0
15.114.1
Auto5.3
Teleop7.5
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
52%Melody oddsEarned17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
21%Ensemble oddsMissed36%Ensemble oddsEarned