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Red70
439143.5
170129.7
776933.8
Blue111
571240.4
207545.7
276744.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1191575010020025070111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.50.9
45.144.2
Auto14.7
Teleop26.4
End2.4
blue by 2.2
45.70.7
48.047.3
Auto13.3
Teleop28.6
End3.8
Second
33.80.9
35.434.5
Auto11.0
Teleop20.5
End2.2
blue by 10.6
44.40.7
46.746.0
Auto11.5
Teleop27.5
End5.4
Third
29.70.9
31.330.4
Auto9.1
Teleop20.1
End0.5
blue by 10.7
40.40.7
42.742.0
Auto13.4
Teleop24.8
End2.2