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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions44310204060807036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.52.4
18.520.9
Auto12.4
Teleop16.9
End3.3
red by 16.2
314
#29
16.30.7
11.512.1
Auto6.0
Teleop8.1
End2.2
Second
5612
#17
14.92.4
11.614.0
Auto5.2
Teleop8.8
End0.9
red by 4.2
9251
#30
10.80.7
8.99.6
Auto6.8
Teleop3.4
End0.6
Third
5046
#21
7.32.4
8.210.6
Auto4.2
Teleop2.5
End0.6
blue by 0.6
6071
#36
7.80.7
9.510.2
Auto4.1
Teleop3.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsEarned16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed