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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions45310102040506070806236

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4779
#10
25.92.5
16.819.4
Auto10.3
Teleop13.9
End1.7
red by 5.8
7166
#15
20.10.7
13.414.2
Auto8.8
Teleop9.1
End2.2
Second
894
#2
21.32.5
14.216.8
Auto6.0
Teleop14.3
End1.0
red by 8.6
7491
#34
12.70.7
6.16.8
Auto4.0
Teleop7.0
End1.7
Third
5282
#31
13.52.5
8.010.6
Auto1.3
Teleop11.3
End0.8
red by 5.4
9757
#25
8.10.7
9.910.6
Auto4.0
Teleop3.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsEarned10%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed