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Red109
111440.8
953532.6
172738.2
Blue132
745741.7
261437.7
645941.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12013050100150200109132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1114
#14
40.80.0
36.236.1
Auto13.1
Teleop26.0
End1.7
blue by 1.0
7457
#18
41.70.9
38.939.9
Auto14.0
Teleop21.9
End5.8
Second
1727
#16
38.20.0
41.641.6
Auto11.2
Teleop25.5
End1.5
blue by 3.2
6459
#44
41.40.9
38.439.3
Auto11.5
Teleop28.4
End1.5
Third
32.60.0
31.931.8
Auto9.0
Teleop18.9
End4.6
blue by 5.2
2614
#29
37.70.9
38.839.7
Auto12.3
Teleop19.5
End5.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
98%Melody oddsEarned96%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
46%Ensemble oddsMissed68%Ensemble oddsEarned