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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions383302060804134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3322
#10
21.30.4
16.416.8
Auto11.3
Teleop8.9
End1.1
red by 7.6
7225
#25
13.71.3
15.414.2
Auto4.3
Teleop8.2
End1.2
Second
2224
#12
8.70.4
9.29.6
Auto3.6
Teleop4.0
End1.1
red by 1.8
7220
#34
6.81.3
9.68.4
Auto2.3
Teleop3.0
End1.5
Third
8124
#32
3.50.4
7.98.3
Auto2.9
Teleop0.3
End0.4
Level
9735
#36
3.61.3
5.34.1
Auto1.9
Teleop0.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
17%Melody oddsMissed18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed