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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions514101020306070807225

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.53.0
19.522.5
Auto12.5
Teleop14.3
End2.7
red by 11.7
1701
#15
17.91.4
17.115.7
Auto5.7
Teleop10.0
End2.2
Second
20.63.0
12.215.3
Auto9.4
Teleop8.7
End2.5
red by 13.7
7220
#34
6.81.4
11.610.2
Auto2.3
Teleop3.0
End1.5
Third
6344
#18
15.03.0
12.915.9
Auto3.5
Teleop9.4
End2.2
red by 9.7
9685
#28
5.32.0
5.77.7
Auto1.7
Teleop2.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsEarned20%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed