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Red59
65335.7
556011.6
233731.0
Blue68
150219.8
499413.2
552522.4
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions435102060801005968

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.01.3
27.328.5
Auto14.2
Teleop15.2
End1.5
red by 8.5
22.41.5
15.917.5
Auto9.0
Teleop11.4
End2.1
Second
5560
#28
11.61.3
7.68.9
Auto5.0
Teleop4.4
End2.2
blue by 8.1
19.81.5
17.118.6
Auto8.9
Teleop10.1
End0.8
Third
6533
#36
5.71.3
5.26.5
Auto2.8
Teleop2.5
End0.4
blue by 7.5
4994
#20
13.21.5
12.213.7
Auto3.2
Teleop7.5
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsEarned33%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
5%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsEarned