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Red76
776941.2
505017.3
48384.5
Blue39
838512.7
97333.4
170129.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6654204060801007639

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.20.4
39.339.7
Auto15.2
Teleop22.3
End3.6
red by 11.9
29.30.7
30.729.9
Auto11.2
Teleop16.9
End1.1
Second
5050
#15
17.30.4
15.716.0
Auto6.3
Teleop8.1
End2.9
red by 4.6
8385
#16
12.70.7
15.614.9
Auto3.6
Teleop7.8
End1.3
Third
4838
#22
4.50.4
3.43.8
Auto2.1
Teleop0.8
End1.6
red by 1.2
9733
#25
3.40.7
3.93.2
Auto2.0
Teleop0.4
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
72%Melody oddsMissed30%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed