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Red48
716018.8
10720.9
51839.3
Blue40
779020.4
55607.0
368824.4
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54612040801004840

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
107
#11
20.90.1
21.421.3
Auto8.3
Teleop11.2
End1.4
blue by 3.5
3688
#12
24.41.3
25.424.1
Auto10.5
Teleop11.7
End2.2
Second
18.80.1
18.618.5
Auto6.4
Teleop10.8
End1.6
blue by 1.6
7790
#10
20.41.3
20.319.0
Auto9.1
Teleop10.5
End0.8
Third
5183
#19
9.30.1
9.39.3
Auto4.1
Teleop1.7
End3.4
red by 2.2
5560
#32
7.01.6
8.67.0
Auto2.6
Teleop3.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsEarned66%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
25%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed