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Red71
780811.8
716018.8
368824.4
Blue70
553518.0
511019.3
498318.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60592040801007170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3688
#12
24.40.4
24.124.5
Auto10.5
Teleop11.7
End2.2
red by 5.1
5110
#28
19.30.4
18.318.7
Auto5.9
Teleop10.0
End3.4
Second
18.80.5
18.518.9
Auto6.4
Teleop10.8
End1.6
red by 0.1
18.80.4
17.818.2
Auto7.1
Teleop9.4
End2.3
Third
7808
#29
11.80.4
11.511.9
Auto3.5
Teleop6.1
End2.2
blue by 6.2
5535
#21
18.00.4
17.017.4
Auto5.1
Teleop11.4
End1.5