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Red75
320622.5
298717.4
226420.2
Blue76
812222.6
250117.1
206220.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions656550607080907576

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3206
#21
22.50.3
22.222.5
Auto9.8
Teleop10.3
End2.4
blue by 0.1
8122
#11
22.60.5
22.222.7
Auto11.1
Teleop9.3
End2.1
Second
2264
#23
20.20.3
19.920.2
Auto7.0
Teleop11.9
End1.4
blue by 0.3
20.50.5
20.120.6
Auto7.2
Teleop12.8
End0.5
Third
17.40.3
17.117.4
Auto5.9
Teleop10.6
End1.0
red by 0.4
2501
#10
17.10.5
16.717.2
Auto5.2
Teleop9.1
End2.9