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Red34
546418.6
99996.9
320622.5
Blue52
313417.4
99986.9
569025.6
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions536501001503452

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3206
Unranked
22.50.0
22.522.5
Auto9.8
Teleop10.3
End2.4
blue by 3.1
5690
Unranked
25.60.0
25.625.6
Auto10.6
Teleop12.7
End2.3
Second
5464
Unranked
18.60.0
18.618.6
Auto7.9
Teleop9.0
End1.7
red by 1.3
3134
Unranked
17.40.0
17.417.4
Auto9.0
Teleop7.4
End1.0
Third
9999
Unranked
6.90.0
6.96.9
Auto3.1
Teleop3.4
End0.6
Level
9998
Unranked
6.90.0
6.96.9
Auto3.1
Teleop3.4
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
39%Melody odds34%Melody odds
Ensemble
15%Ensemble odds2%Ensemble odds